According to the
seedings these are the NBA conference finals match-ups we expected. The Golden
State Warriors and Houston Rockets were the first and second seeds in the West
likewise the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers respectively in the East.
However,
the road thus far hasn’t been all smooth sailing and has shown that the regular
season is indeed important.
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| Chef Curry is ready to cook... |
The
home court advantage the Rockets stole in the final week of the regular season
by clinching the West’s second seed, for example, was crucial in their
miraculous win over the LA Clippers in the last round.
Houston
only got home court over the Clippers by winning their division – the toughest
in the NBA, ahead of the San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas
Mavericks – even though LA had a better conference record.
In
the end, home comforts helped the Rockets back from the dead.
Seemingly
buried at 3-1, they fought back to level the series and then win the decisive
Game 7 in Houston to become the first team since the Phoenix Suns in 2006 (over
the LA Lakers) to overturn a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs and only the ninth in
history.
Similarly
in the East, the Hawks and Cavaliers’ progress has been aided by being higher
seeds, helping both overcome their stuttering post-seasons so far with timely
wins at home.
Though
the Hawks-Cavs match-up was widely expected, it has been tougher going than
expected for both. Atlanta especially, facing a second-rate Brooklyn Nets in
the first round and then the fifth-seeded Washington Wizards, made heavy work
of getting this far.
The
Cavaliers haven’t been convincing for any prolonged period this season and
seemed there for the taking by the Chicago Bulls in the last round before
pulling through with a 4-2 series win.
But,
here we are, and for the second year in a row the top two seeds in the West and
East make the respective conference finals.
Taking
the regular season seriously does help.
Western
Conference finals
Golden State
Warriors v Houston Rockets
According
to Phil Welsh, a coaching pal of mine, it is Golden State all the way the NBA
title. “Not only do I think they will win the title, I don’t think they will
play a single Game 7 to do it” he said before the beginning of the playoffs.
It
is difficult to argue his bold sentiments.
The
67-win Warriors have been the best basketball team all season long and produced
one of the best regular seasons in NBA history.
They
were projected to get this far and remain, according to bookies, expected to go
all the way.
So
far they have had an almost perfect postseason.
Apart
from injury to bench spark Marreese Speights in the last series against the
Memphis Grizzlies, all is perfect. The postseason has been testing for the
Warriors, but not too difficult.
They
were challenged heavily in spurts by the New Orleans Pelicans in the first
round and even had to rely on some Stephen Curry magic to force overtime in
Game 3. Still, they won in four games.
In
the second round they met the Grizzlies at their Grit and Grind. That was a
different and much-needed test.
The
question was always whether the Warriors hot-shooting game could survive the
grind of the postseason and after three games naysayers appeared validated.
Golden State was down 2-1 and struggling.
But,
the Warriors overcame the challenge and in style.
They
closed out the series with wins of 17, 20 and 13 points.
Their
game blazed like a supernova and passed the strength test which will surely
help them going forward. In a way, the challenges they faced against the
Pelicans (athleticism) and Memphis (grind) will be what they’ll see against
Houston.
Now
Golden State stands as the most equipped and healthiest of the four remaining
teams.
Curry
is the league MVP for a reason. Klay Thompson is not just a sidekick but a
force on both ends of the floor. He’s averaging 25 points on 48 percent
shooting and his defence of Mike Conley in the last round was pivotal.
Harrison
Barnes is growing into something of the star envisioned when he came out of
college and Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut are elite players, period.
In
the regular season the Warriors were 4-0 against the Rockets winning the games
by an average of 15 points, including a 25-point drubbing in Houston after
James Harden had said “they ain’t even that good”.
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| Dead eye shooter... James Harden |
It
will be tough for the Rockets.
The
Warriors have a bevy of defenders to throw at Harden. Bogut and Green will give
Dwight Howard his fair share of work, and the most worrying fact, Curry will be
going up against 37-year-old Jason Terry.
If
that isn’t scary from a Houston point of view, I’m not sure what can.
Difference maker
Golden State
Warriors: Andre Iguodala
Once
considered one of the best defenders in the NBA, Iguodala has only drifted from
the conversation because he has unselfishly accepted the role of being a bench
player for the Warriors this season. As the postseason has progressed he has
got more minutes per game (26 in the regular season to 27.2 so far in the
postseason) and he may be crucial defending Harden.
Houston Rockets:
Josh Smith
Josh
Smith will also be important. He was been crucial after being inserted into
Houston’s line-up against the Clippers and was one of the main reasons the
Rockets came back. He is a very talented player and was once viewed as a
potential franchise player at Atlanta. His stock dipped drastically in later
years at the Hawks and then at the Detroit Pistons where he was released in
January just a year into a multi-million, multi-year deal.
He
is happy in Houston playing with childhood friend Howard. He has the size,
skill and athleticism to turn any game. He is also shooting 37 percent from
3-point range this postseason and has been a reliable, calm player for the
Rockets.
What to watch
The
Warriors have made 40 percent from 3-point range in 48 games this season, an
incredible stat. They have won 44 of those, including two against the Rockets
in the regular season. They are not letting up on their shooting in the
playoffs. Golden State has have increased their 3-point output, hoisting 29.9
3s per game in the playoffs compared to 27 in regular season.
Houston
was the best 3-point defence. Opponents made 32.2 percent of 3s against them.
The Rockets aren’t slouches shooting them either. Houston shot the most 3s in
the regular season and relies heavily on the deep ball. The Houston-Clippers
series was Hack-a-Shaq, this one could see non-stop bombs from way downtown.
Prediction
This
one could go down to seven games. The Rockets have been written off several
times but showed great resilience in finishing as second seeds in the brutal
West despite a bevy of injuries and then in overturning the Clippers. However,
the Rockets showed some bad habits in the series against the Clippers. They
lost three games rather tamely to start the series – losing Games 3 and 4 by a
combined 58 points – and were down 19 points in the third quarter of Game 6.
Unlike Clippers, the Warriors will not pardon allow any slacking from Houston.
They
will hurt the Rockets badly if they slack defensively or if Houston’s basic
offence stutters.
It
is only the presence of a returning-to-transcendence Howard and a savvy,
fearless Harden that gives me any inkling of a long series. There is no team
with the combination of Golden State’s hunger, discipline, speed and shooting
right now. Their combination of outside shooting and defence seems unbeatable.
Warriors to win 4-2
Eastern
Conference finals
Atlanta Hawks v
Cleveland Cavaliers
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| All 4 one... Atlanta Hawks |
Whereas
the West finals feature two teams on the up, it feels as if the East is a
patchwork. The Hawks have been limping since well before the end of the regular
season while the Cavaliers are very mortal after their fantasy filled
off-season.
Cleveland’s
‘Big 3’ is down to 1⅓. Kevin Love is injured and Kyrie Irving is hobbled
dealing with ankles problems and tendonitis in the knees. Their support cast
has stepped up but Iman Shumpert has been dealing with a groin problem and
overall, health is a big issue in the Cleveland camp.
As
it is, their season could very well be over. Trailing 2-1 to the Bulls in the
conference semi-finals, LeBron James produced a 38-point, 12-rebound,
six-assist, three-block, no turnover performance in Game 4. That superhuman
performance kept Cleveland alive and ultimately doused Chicago’s vigour.
However, it wasn’t convincing.
The
Hawks haven’t done much better.
They
were tested more than necessary by a weak Nets side in the first round before
eventually winning in six games and could have easily been knocked out by the
Wizards in the semis. In the end, Atlanta scraped through 4-2 again, however,
new cracks are seemingly appearing each week.
The
latest? Critical sharp-shooter Kyle Korver averaged just seven points per game
on 31.3 percent shooting and 28.6 percent from 3-point range against the
Wizards.
It
just feels as though we have already seen the Hawks’ peak, and it was in the
regular season.
Difference maker
Atlanta Hawks:
Al Horford
Al
Horford is a legitimate star and has been for sometime. The Eastern Conference
finals could be his official coming out party.
Cleveland
Cavaliers: Tristan Thompson
I
have long maintained Tristan Thompson is of the most important players on the
Cleveland team, arguably behind only James and Irving. His rebounding and
boundless energy will be crucial.
What to watch
JR
Smith. Of Smith’s 9.6 shots per game in the playoffs, 6.1 are spot up attempts.
Similar to Josh Smith for Houston, JR has matured since arriving at his new
team. He’s central to Cleveland’s hopes and, when he gets going with his
shooting, it can be quite a show.
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| King Watching... LeBron James |
Prediction
My
feeling is LeBron James is going up against a mini San Antonio Spurs (Atlanta’s
coach, Mike Budelholzer, spent 18 years as an assistant at the Spurs).
Firstly,
Atlanta’s ball movement will be a problem for the Cavaliers.
Secondly,
although DeMarre Carroll is expected to be James’ main defensive foe during the
series, the Hawks will likely throw a variety of defenders and schemes at
James, such daring him to take jump shots, as San Antonio sometimes did. And,
James isn’t shooting well, posting his worst accuracy numbers since 2008 (42
percent overall and 15 percent from 3-point range).
The
Cavs’ offence also often descends into a bevy of isolation plays characterised
by poor ball movement and spacing, with James and Irving expected to make magic
happen. That may not be good enough.
Atlanta
was a top 10 team in both offence and defence during the regular season.
Overall,
the Hawks appear slightly more rounded than Cleveland.
Hawks to win 4-3
