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Friday, May 18, 2012

Game time: Bayern Munich v Chelsea


The comprehensive Champions League final preview

Game Time!
The Uefa Champions League final is the biggest stage of them all in club football – the Grand Theatre where a player can forge immortality.

Few ever get this opportunity, and this year the privilege goes to the players of Bayern Munich – the hosts, coincidentally, for this year’s championship game – and English survivors Chelsea, who few would have expected to get this far.

As is always the case on such occasions, it’s the want of those in the know to predict who the favourites are. In this regard the German hosts have to be favoured, even with Chelsea’s heroics this season.

Both sides, though, go into Saturday’s grand finale substantially hamstrung by suspensions to key players.

In all, seven players will miss the final. Bayern are missing exciting leftback David Alaba, German international centreback Holger Badstuber and midfield workhorse Luis Gustavo. Chelsea, on the other hand, will be without inspirational captain John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Ramires as well as Raul Meireles – all of whom have been critical in the Blues’ unlikely run to the Allianz Arena showpiece.

For Chelsea, Saturday’s showdown – with its accompanying suspensions – is fraught with strategic riddles in the chess-match that is always a Champions League final.

Chelsea simultaneously not only have to employ a form of counterattack, but also have to somehow impose their style if they are to have any hopes of claiming victory.

As former Chelsea boss Avram Grant said in the build-up, this final will come down to who takes their chances and this truer for Roberto Di Matteo’s side, as most question marks surround them.

With so many suspensions and injuries doubts it has, for example, become a point of interest whether Didier Drogba and Fernando Torres will start up-front together. It has been mooted that Di Matteo has tried this in training. For the record, Drogba and Torres haven’t started together in the 19 games since Di Matteo took over at Stamford Bridge. In total the two have been on the pitch simultaneously on only seven occasions – for a total of 132 minutes.

That stat aside, it would represent a significant risk on the part of Di Matteo to experiment with two out-and-out strikers, especially in what is essentially an away match.

It is more likely he will go with a variant of Chelsea’s tested 4-3-3.

Will Michael Essien step into Chelsea's midfield?
With both Ramires and Meireles out it’s intriguing how Chelsea’s midfield, where the game could be won or lost, will shape up. One would suspect Michael Essien will return to the fold, with Mikel sitting in front of the back four and Frank Lampard the furthest forward of the central midfield trio.

Mikel has been outstanding since his reintroduction into the team by Di Matteo and Chelsea’s rise can quite reasonably be linked to his commanding form. Teams have cultures, and Chelsea is the team of Claude Makelele fame. In his time Jose Mourinho established a blueprint that this current group of players are most comfortable with – that is, a midfield three with an anchorman at its defensive base.

This is always Chelsea’s most prudent option.

Having Essien in there as part of this trio will also assist leftback Ashley Cole.

The right flank is probably Bayern’s most productive channel with Philipp Lahm and Arjen Robben forming a world-class wing combination. If Juan Mata is, as expected, posted out on the left, consistently reliable protection for Cole will have to be sourced from somewhere within Chelsea’s setup. Mata is a responsible footballer but he doesn’t enjoy defending. When he does he isn’t a natural defender and could give away fouls in dangerous areas.

Mikel and Essien in tandem would also, crucially, allow Lampard to enjoy a less restricted role, a role that requires a little less defensive responsibility. Let’s face it, the deeper pair of Chelsea midfielders is unlikely to venture much, and if Lampard is one of the two it will diminish his strengths.

The defence is the real crisis area for Di Matteo.

All logic says David Luiz and Gary Cahill will start in central defence, even if they’ve both been struggling with hamstring injuries. There are simply no other viable options for a game of this magnitude. Of course, a worst case scenario would be starting both Luiz and Cahill and then 30 minutes into the game being forced into substitutions, a makeshift defence – with only one more change available over possibly 120 minutes.

But it’s a risk Di Matteo has to take such is the offensive power and mobility Bayern possess. Makeshift centrebacks are not an option.

The key for Chelsea at the end of the day is Didier Drogba. 

The King... Didier Drogba
Can he give Chelsea an out-ball? Can he occupy the Bayern last third, like only he can? And, can he score? Drogba is back to his beastly best because he has once again found a Chelsea manager that totally believes in him. At his best Drogba offers so much flexibility because of his unique ability to establish a point of attack from virtually any situation, and his selfless work on the defensive side of the ball-game.

Like Messi and Cristiano, Didier on his day in unplayable. He is a devastating physical phenomenon.

And he is Chelsea’s man for the big occasion. Starting with that final group game against Valencia through to the last 16 second leg tie against Napoli and to the semis against Barcelona, Drogba has been Chelsea’s match-decider.

Although Bayern have inconvenient selection posers of their own, they still are the favourites.
The absences of Basdtubber and Alaba do mean Bayern boss Jupp Heynckes will have to rejig his defence.

Experienced Ukrainian utility-man Anatoliy Tymoshchuk seems the first choice to step into defence, though Daniel Van Buyten, who recently played in a reserve match, could make a surprise return. The return of Van Buyten in place of Badstuber in fact wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for Bayern. He is a big, rugged defender and doesn’t mind the physical stuff while Badstubber is a more refined defender, the type which Drogba thrives against in his close-quarter battles.

Heynckes, bidding to become only the fourth man to win Europe’s top club crown with two different clubs - joining Ernst Happel, Ottmar Hitzfield and Jose Mourinho - also has the option of playing Diego Contento in Alaba’s place or switching skipper Philipp Lahm to the left and starting Rafinha at rightback.

In midfield, the absence of Gustavo will likely mean a midfield base of Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos, with Thomas Mueller in behind top-scorer Mario Gomez, and Franck Ribery and Robben on either flank.

That “front four” of Gomez, Mueller, Ribery and Robben are on their day is as potent as any in world football. They are the munitions room where slow, methodical moves crescendo in football explosions. Bayern love to work triangles in attacking areas and put in crosses for their big man Gomez, and with so much uncertainty over Chelsea’s line-up this cohesion alone gives Bayern a big edge.

Robbery... The dangerous duo
Gomez by the way has an amazing scoring record, with 80 goals in 90 appearances for club and country over the past two years and 12 goals in the Champions League this season. Those stats would frighten even a fully fit defence.

Finally, who will win?

The match is almost impossible to call, especially in what has been one of most unpredictable European season in recent memory. There are so many intangibles at play that it really would take a brave soul to call a winner.

It really will come down to who takes their chances. The first goal will be vitally important. History tells us that the scorer of the opening goal on such occasions more often than not wins.

It needs no reminding too that discipline and composure are imperative on occasions such as this. The last team to score first and fail to win was Arsenal, but they were down to ten-men. Chelsea, as the away team certainly can’t afford that on Saturday.

Bayern will have more of the ball, it has become their way. The German side have evolved into a cultured team that perhaps is only behind Barcelona in terms of their strategic and meticulous use of the ball. The orchestrator of this symphony is Schweinsteiger and it may be down to Lampard, or whoever is the furthest forward of Chelsea’s midfield three, to disrupt him. Mikel similarly will have on put the brakes the slippery Mueller.

Bayern...
Or Chelsea?










This is a theme you may have noticed. Chelsea no doubt will have to be the disruptors. They have to diffuse the emotion from game and frustrate Bayern. They have to plant the seed of doubt in Bayern, who can be rampant once they are in the groove, as their 7-0 demolition of Basel in the last 16 stage demonstrated, but vulnerable when the script turns, as their 5-2 German Cup final defeat to Borussia Dortmund illustrated.

All the cards, though, seem to be in the hands of Bayern Munich. They are at home and have a more settled feel. They are young, hungry and talented and will be looking to write Bayern’s name into football history by winning a fifth Champions League title.

But if there is one team that can do the impossible, it is Chelsea.

This is a Hollywood movie script – the last chance for this wonderful group of Chelsea lion-hearts to capture the Holy Grail.

Yebo, it’s game time!

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