Sevilla Villa Bella – The Quest For Balance

Sevilla 2013... Searching for balance

Balance.

That’s what it’s about for Sevilla this season.

After a summer of upheaval and balancing of the books, Sevilla now has to balance the eternally high expectations of their Sevillitas with the reality of a quality sapped squad.

This is Sevilla’s current truth.

Gone are the days when they were a Champions League club eliciting nervous behind-the-shoulder glances from Spain’s big two, Real Madrid and Barcelona. As BSports’ projections confirm, Sevilla’s challenge in 2013/14 is simply to make La Liga’s top eight.

For Sevilla fans, and La Liga followers in general, it is part of a worrying trend – the rich are getting richer and the poor, very poor. With Real and Barcelona hoarding 46.6 percent of the league’s TV revenue (roughly €140 million), two leagues have emerged within La Liga.

Unlike for Real and Barcelona, life for the rest of the division is a delicate compromise between sporting goals and financial survival, and the consequence has been the fall of several potential challengers to the big two.

Sevilla is one such club that has fallen by the wayside. After back-to-back Uefa Cup titles in 2006 and 2007 and consecutive Champions League qualifications from 2008 to 2010, the last two years have been a struggle for the Andalucía club.

For the past two seasons Sevilla has limped into ninth place, gaining 50 points on both occasions – the club’s worst total since their return to La Liga in 2001.

For flamboyant president Jose Maria del Nido the solution this summer has been to sell players, trim the financial fat and source less costly replacements.

In all 18 players have left Sevilla so far, including Alvaro Negredo and Jesus Navas who joined Manchester City for a combined fee of €45 million.

Of the €82 million recouped on transfers, €29 million has been used on 15 signings as Sevilla not only looks to improve on a disappointing 2012/13 campaign but plot its way out of a worrying slump.

Transfers

Players In
Raul Rusescu	Steaua Bucharest
Jairo	Racing Santander
Beto	Braga
Marko Marin	Chelsea (loan)
Vitolo	Las Palmas
Nicolas Pareja	Spartak Moscow
Carlos Bacca	Club Brugge
Daniel Carriço	Reading
Diogo Figueiras	Paços de Ferreira
Kevin Gameiro	Paris Saint-Germain
Stephane Mbia	QPR (loan)
Sebastian Cristoforo	Penarol
Vicente Iborra	Levante

Players Out
Andres Palop	Bayer Leverkusen
Antonio Luna	Aston Villa
Luis Alberto	Liverpool
Bernardo Espinosa	Sporting Gijon
Emir Spahic	Bayer Leverkusen
Jesus Navas	Manchester City
Manu del Moral	Elche
Miroslav Stevanovic	Elche
Lautaro Acosta	Club Atletico Lanus
José Campaña	Crystal Palace
Alvaro Negredo	Manchester City
Hiroshi Ibusuki	Valencia Mestalla
Alberto Botia	Elche (loan)
Gary Medel	Cardiff City
Geoffrey Kondogbia	Monaco

Glory days...
Sevilla lift the second of their back-to-back Uefa Cup
titles (2007) 

It won’t be easy, though.

For a start, Sevilla has lost its two best players.

Negredo, the club’s top scorer since joining four years ago, is gone.

His boots will be difficult to fill.

Last season Negredo scored 25 of Sevilla’s 53 league goals, equating to 43% of the team’s goals – the joint-highest ratio in Europe’s top five leagues (alongside PSG’s Zlatan Ibrahmovic).

Navas, who became a club symbol and a main attacking outlet with his pace and skill during his decade's service, is also departed. Last season, Navas averaged 1.7 dribbles per game, the eighth most in La Liga, and 2.1 key passes per game, bettered only by eight players. To better illustrate his importance; 40 percent of Sevilla’s attacks last season came down the right flank.

Attack Side	Left	Middle of the pitch	Right
	34%	26%	40%

It's not just the departures of Negredo and Navas that's causing headaches. Fellow top performers Luis Alberto, Antonio Luna, Jose Campana and Gary Medel have also joined the Premiership exodus heading to Liverpool, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Cardiff City respectively while Geoffrey Kondogbia, a star of France’s recent Fifa Under-20 World Cup win, has signed for Monaco. It is, for all intents and purposes, a considerable nose bleed.

To stop it Sevilla has gone for the low-priced, potential-based buys typical of the model sporting director Manuel ‘Monchi’ Rodriguez has masterminded since his arrival at the club in 2002.

Marko Marin has joined on a season long-loan from Chelsea while other highly-rated prospects Vitolo, Jairo and Sebastian Cristoforo have been added on the cheap from Las Palmas, Racing Santander and Penarol.

Around €13 million has been spent on strikers Carlos Bacca (from Club Brugge) and PSG’s Kevin Gameiro to replace Negredo while Cameroon midfielder Stephane Mbia has joined on loan from QPR to replace Kondogbia.

Once again Sevilla are banking on a strategy that has unleashed talents such as Dani Alves, Luis Fabiano and Seydou Keita. But, as with any gamble, immediate return on investment is not guaranteed.

Gone...
The jewel of Seville, Jesus Navas

Achieving Balance

Sevilla’s goals to achieve balance need to extend to the field as well.

For one, Sevilla needs better balance between their home and away form. Sevilla’s home has always been their strength but last season the disparity was alarming with 40 of Sevilla’s 50 points coming at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.

It's a concern. Sevilla’s record of 10 points on their travels was the joint-worst alongside Celta Vigo and relegated Real Mallorca while their only away win was over relegated Deportivo La Coruna last September.

So, in spite of a home record bettered only by Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Valencia, Sevilla only finished 13 points above the relegation zone.

A simple reason for Sevilla’s away struggles was a lack of balance between attack and defence.

Last season Sevilla’s offence was ok. Despite their below-par campaign Sevilla – as is traditionally the case – still ranked high in average possession, pass accuracy and shots per game.

Possession
Barcelona	69%
Rayo Vallecano	58%
Athletic Bilbao	56.6%
Real Madrid	55.7%
Sevilla	53.4%

Pass Accuracy
Barcelona	89.5%
Real Madrid	81.7%
Valencia	80.5%
Malaga	80.1%
Sevilla	79.5%

Shots Per Game
Real Madrid	18.7
Valencia	14.9
Rayo Vallecano	14.9
Real Sociedad	14.7
Sevilla	14.5

Stats via WhoScored

The Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan...
Red, loud and crazy

Sevilla’s Achilles Heel, however, has always been at the other end; and over the past two seasons it has been amplified. Worryingly, a lack of depth, experience and quality in defence remains un-addressed.

Federico Fazio is prone to errors and lacks pace. New signing Nicolas Pareja is out for up to two months. Israel Puerto, a Spain Under-20 international and Sevilla youth product, is promising but raw. Daniel Carrico, on loan from Reading, had a solid pre-season but he’s set to be sidelined until October and, because of injuries, new midfield signing Vicente Iborra has already had to fill-in at the back.

Glimpses of Sevilla’s defensive fragility have already been seen - in the side’s league opener at home to Atletico Madrid where Sevilla lost 3-1, despite enjoying 63 percent of possession, because lapses in defence.

The Outlook

This is the state of affairs Unai Emery has to work with in what is his first full season in charge.

Emery, as he does, worked wonders after taking over from Michel in January. Finding Sevilla just six points clear of the relegation zone, he steadied the ship and guided the club up to ninth. For the most part it wasn’t exciting but it was effective, and Emery managed to give the team an identity it lacked under his predecessor.

Nevertheless, instead of building on a promising first six months there is more evolution to face.

Much, then, will depend the club’s established players such as José Antonio Reyes, Piotr Trochowski, Coke and Ivan Rakitic.

Rakitic, in particular, is central to Sevilla’s chances. The Croatia midfielder was one of La Liga’s top performers in 2012/13 scoring eight goals and adding 10 assists, the joint-fourth highest assists total last season. Rakitic also averaged an impressive 2.9 key passes a game, the highest mark in La Liga. His intelligence and ball retention are crucial to the methodical style Emery prefers.

Ivan Rakitic 2013/14 La Liga Stats
Appearances	34
Goals	8
Assists	10
Shots per games	1.8
Key passes per game	2.9
Dribbles per game	0.6
Dispossessed per game	1.3
Turnovers per game	1

Thumbs up for Ivan!
Ivan Rakitic holds the key to Sevilla's season

New addition Marin has also quickly become crucial to Emery’s famed tactical fluidity. So far this season the German has been used the support to the central striker and Marin has shown the ability to either drop deep to give Sevilla a 4-2-3-1 shape or push higher up, alongside the centre-forward, to make it 4-4-2.

Conclusion

Emery has clearly been headhunted for his record of achieving success on a tight budget (see Almeria and Valencia) and his ability to nurture underrated players, such as Roberto Soldado, to superstardom.

However, it may be a few seasons before Sevilla can challenge for Champions League spots again.

What's most important now for Sevilla now stability (Emery is Sevilla’s sixth coach in three years).

Eighth-place sounds about the best the the Andalucíans can hope for in 2013/14.

For this season it’s all about Sevilla’s quest for balance.

Originally written: 2 September, 2013 for BSports StatsInsights

http://www.bsports.com/statsinsights/football/sevilla-villa-bella-the-quest-for-balance