Barcelona v Atlético Madrid Preview: The Finale

Changing of the guard?
Contenders Atletico and champions Barcelona

It’s the finale everyone had hoped for since it became clear Atlético Madrid would be in with a shot of winning the title this season: Barcelona versus Atlético at the Camp Nou, on the final day of the season.

The circumstances are somewhat different from what had been envisioned, though. Both teams are limping into tonight’s game and over the finish line – Atlético due to fatigue and Barcelona because of an unexplainable late season melancholy.

Combined, Barça and Atleti have contrived to pick up just three points from the last 12 available and two wins from the last six games.

The stakes, nevertheless, are high and the tasks for each side clear. Barcelona have to win, Atletico need only to avoid defeat.

Only twice before has the championship gone to the final day in this manner; ironically each involved Barça or Atletico. In 1945-46 Sevilla edged Barcelona in a final round decider to close the season; five years later Atletico emerged victorious in a similar showdown, also against Sevilla.

As Andres Iniesta put it in the build-up, “the whole season comes down to 90 minutes.”

Barcelona and Atletico over the past three games

		P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	In La Liga
1	Barcelona	3	1	2	0	5	4	+1	5	6th
2	Atletico Madrid	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4	11th

Pressure on Atletico

Funnily enough the pressure tonight is on Atlético, the clear underdogs for much of the season. 

 La Liga leaders through the season

Week 1-21: Barcelona Week 22: Atlético Madrid Week 23-24: Barcelona Week 25-28: Real Madrid Week 29-37: Atlético Madrid Week 38: - - -

Everyone had been waiting all season long for them to falter but Atlético have extraordinarily kept in touch with Barcelona and Real.

In fact, Los Colchoneros did so well they could be champions by now had they beaten Malaga at home last Sunday. Instead a 1-1 draw means all their hard work could yet be undone.

Barcelona, on the other hand, shouldn’t be here. They know it too. Their last two matches have been draws against relegation-threatened opponents and, in-between those results, Barça held a team barbeque team that appeared to be an end-of-season send-off.

Their accuracy and verve has long since left them and these past four weeks have felt like an extended exit interview for coach Gerardo Martino.

Barcelona since April

01.04.2014	Champions League	Atletico Madrid	H	D 1-1
05.04.2014	La Liga	Real Betis	H	W 3-1
09.04.2014	Champions League	Atletico Madrid	A	L 0-1
12.04.2014	La Liga	Granada	A	L 0-1
20.04.2014	La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	H	W 2-1
27.04.2014	La Liga	Villarreal	A	W 3-2
03.05.2014	La Liga	Getafe	H	D 2-2
11.05.2014	La Liga	Elche	A	D 0-0

Yet, somehow Barça are within grasp of the title and that heaps pressure on Atlético; a team that hasn’t been here before and that will be haunted by recent failures to wrap up the title, first losing to Levante and then inexplicably (for the stakes involved) drawing at home against Malaga.

Costy, Costy
Malaga celebrate, Atletico wait

Barcelona have been given a second chance. Atlético won’t have any more.

Home advantage

For all their struggles Barcelona’s home record, as ever, remains imposing – 16 wins in 18 games this season, 63 goals scored and only 14 conceded.

In fact, plain and simple, Barcelona’s home record is insane.

Barcelona have lost just three of their last 94 league games at home (winning 85) dating back to the start of the 2009/10 season.

Against Atletico their record is similarly daunting. Barcelona have won their last six league meetings with Atleti at the Camp Nou, scoring 4.3 goals per game on average (Atlético have not won a point at Barcelona since 2006).

Take into the always likely hometown decisions and the size of the task that awaits Atletico, even with Barcelona’s woes, becomes clear.

Barcelona’s home record since start of 2009/10 season

P	W	D	L	GF	GA
94	85	6	3	302	61

The outcome

The form guide says Atletico do have a chance and that they know how to handle Barcelona. The sides have met five times this season and Atletico are unbeaten including knocking Barcelona out of the Champions League.

Tactically, the board has been written many times. Barça have flaws Atletico look to take advantage of – on the counterattack, at set-pieces (Barcelona have conceded a league-high 25% of their goals from corners) and sheer physical harassment through the 90 minutes.

It’s worked thus far but this is an incredible opportunity for Barcelona, one that they will be motivated to seize even if they have been the poorer side coming down the final stretch.

Barcelona, in truth, have coasted over the last five weeks; they haven’t expanded as much energy, physically and mentally, as Atlético who’ve put in so much effort it’s a minor miracle they are still standing.

On their best day Barcelona still posses the best player on the planet, the world’s best midfield, and pertinent to this particular game, the greater experience of the big occasion.

Barcelona still have Lionel Messi...

Barcelona have struggled to be Barcelona for much of this season. But, they only need to be Barcelona for one last 90 minutes to win the title.

Is it important for La Liga that Atlético win the title?

Yes.

The world is secretly rooting for Atlético tonight. Well, outside Catalonia at least.

La Liga has become too much of a two-team league.

Of course, the Spanish Primera has always generally been that way; Real Madrid and Barcelona are Spain’s two giants and have won 54 of the 82 titles (65%) since the league’s beginning. However, there were still genuine challengers. Between 1996 and 2004 Atletico, for example, Deportivo La Coruña and Valencia each won titles while Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad finished in the top two.

La Liga winners by club

Real Madrid	32
Barcelona	22
Atlético Madrid	9
Athletic Bilbao	8
Valencia	6
Real Sociedad	2
Deportivo La Coruña	1
Sevilla	1
Real Betis	1

La Liga parity 1996 to 2004

Season	Winners	Second	Third
1995–96	Atlético Madrid	Valencia	Barcelona
1996–97	Real Madrid	Barcelona	Deportivo La Coruña
1997–98	Barcelona	Athletic Bilbao	Real Sociedad
1998–99	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Real Mallorca
1999–00	Deportivo La Coruña	Barcelona	Valencia
2000–01	Real Madrid	Deportivo La Coruña	Mallorca
2001–02	Valencia	Deportivo La Coruña	Real Madrid
2002–03	Real Madrid	Real Sociedad	Deportivo La Coruña
2003–04	Valencia	Barcelona	Deportivo La Coruña

Points tally gap between Real Madrid and Barcelona, and the rest

	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Third-place	Gap
2008-09	87 (1st)	78	70	8
2009-10	99	96	71	25
2010-11	96	92	71	21
2011-12	91	100	61	39
2012-13	100	85	76	9

However, since then only once has a team other than Barcelona or Real finished in the top two (Villarreal in 2007-08).

Barcelona and Real, of course, make ridiculous money – their combined budget last season was reported to be €987 million, while the total for the other 18 clubs was €872.6 million – and are as elite in Europe as at home.

What had been the problem, however, had been the widening gap – the feeling that their dominance domestically had gone too far; that there was no way their duopoly could be challenged.

Up, up and away!
Star striker Diego Costa leads the way,
but he could be gone by the end of the season

At the end of the 2011-12 season there was a 39-point gap from Barça and Real to the third-placed side. This unquestionably hurt the league and although Atlético are still far from being consistent challengers to the top two (Los Colchoneros are going to have sell their best players again to pay off debts) the promise of a genuine contender while Diego Simeone remains coach is there.

Atlético have also shown it’s possible to stand toe-to-toe with Barcelona and Real.

It doesn’t mean there’ll suddenly be mini-Atléticos springing up but it reaffirms that challenging the top two is possible when Spain believed it wasn’t – something which visible in the approach of teams over the past four seasons.

The hope is that Simeone can do something similar to what Jose Mourinho achieved at Chelsea 10 years ago in terms of the culture and tradition he instilled at the club, installing a new DNA.

Chances like these don’t come often. One moment can define a club history.

There is no guarantee Atletico will challenge again if they don’t win tonight. History is littered with also-rans who got close to the mountain and never quite made it back, some even falling back into obscurity altogether.

Atlético... welcome to the party... but you have to finish off the job.