Afcon Final: Ivory Coast vs Zambia

The final of the 2012 Orange Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) is finally upon us and it sees a team everyone expected to make it take on one few would have thought twice about.

Zambia, spurred on by a passionate bond to tragedy of years past, have been the fairytale of the year. Chipolopolo, victors over Ghana in the semis, play an Ivory Coast side that has for their part coasted to this final, without conceding a goal.

Will Ivory Coast fans be celebrating at the end of the night?

Tonight’s final is a meeting of two sides that have been special in their own right at this Afcon and two sides that will have special stories to tell should they be crowned African champions tonight.

For Zambia it will be the perfect story-book ending if they win the title in Libreville, Gabon – the scene of the 1993 air disaster that robbed the country of its greatest team.

Ivory Coast on the other hand – after years of failing to deliver on their promise – can write themselves into history by adding their name to the list of countries that have won the Cup of Nations title more than once.

I didn’t give Zambia a chance in the semi-finals against Ghana and for similar reasons I feel they will struggle big-time tonight. I just don’t see how Chipolopolo will cope physically against Ivory Coast. I may sound foolish for saying this again, especially after Chipolopolo overcame Ghana, but I believe this is a huge factor – one that will decide this match.

To be honest Ghana dominated Zambia physically in the semis and it is the Black Stars’ wastefulness in front of goal that cost them in the end.

The speed and power of Ivory Coast is immense and very difficult to contain. Zambia can match the Elephants for passing yes, but they will have a tough time in that middle of the park against the powerhouse trio of Didier Zokora, Cheick Tiote and Yaya Toure.

From set-pieces there is also a sizeable height and power advantage for the Ivory Coast while on the break the Elephants have shown they are the most potent side at this Afcon.

One thing that I learnt from the semi-finals though is that there is no substitute for heart and determination. Zambia have this in abundance and they clearly believe they are on a mission. But Ivory Coast might just be a class above.

Key battles:

Mweene vs. Barry

Kennedy Mweene has been my goalkeeper of the tournament. He has been outstanding, while also being refreshingly African – that is to say, entertaining. He is an infectious character on the field and more than anything else, inspires confidence to the rest of the team. In terms of inspiring confidence Barry hasn’t been the best at this tournament so far and has had some shaky moments.

Kalaba vs. Tiene

I’m not always convinced by Siaka Tiene at leftback, but he was outstanding against Mali and has rarely put a foot wrong all tournament. He will be up against Rainford Kalaba who has been one of the shining lights in this tournament. Kalaba’s battle with Tiene will be interesting to watch.

Yaya Toure vs. Chansa and Kasonde

Yaya Toure has yet to fully dominate as he can at these championships and there is no better time to change that than today. Whether Zambia are able to contain him could decide tonight’s game.

Didier Drogba vs. the Zambia central defence

On his day Didier Drogba can destroy any defence in the world and he has been at his devastating best in the knockout rounds of this Afcon.

Joseph Musonda vs. Gervinho

At 34 Musonda, who plays for Golden Arrows, will be the oldest player on the pitch. He will spend much of the night facing Gervinho who scored a wonder goal in the semis against Mali and will be brimming with confidence. Gervinho has been a major outlet for Ivory Coast all tournament with his pace and this is another key battle.

Or will Zambia be dancing again?

Quote: “We all know Ivory Coast has big-name players. But as I have said before, on the field it will be 11 against 11, so we will be ready for the match.” Chipolopolo captain Chris Katongo

• Overall, this will be the third Afcon final for both teams. Ivory Coast have a title to show for their previous two trips to the title match while Zambia are still searching for a first continental crown. Zambia were beaten by Zaire (now DR Congo) in 1974 and then finished runners-up to Nigeria 20 years later. Ivory Coast’s only title was won on penalties against Ghana in 1992. The Elephants and they came out second best in 2006 in another shootout, losing to hosts Egypt.

• Zambia and Ivory Coast have played each other three times before at the Nations Cup. All the games ended with a 1-0 score-line, with two of them won by Chipolopolo.

• The tournament’s top scorer award is currently a six-way tie between players who have scored three goals each. Three of them, Didier Drogba, Christopher Katongo and Emmanuel Mayuka, will play in tonight’s final.

Probable teams:

Ivory Coast

4-3-3

Boubacar Barry; Jean-Jacques Gosso, Siaka Tiene, Kolo Toure, Souleymane Bamba; Didier Zokora, Cheick Tiote, Yaya Toure, Gervinho, Salomon Kalou, Didier Drogba ©

Zambia

4-4-2

Kennedy Mweene; Davies Nkausu, Hichani Himonde, Stopilla Sunzu, Joseph Musonda; Isaac Chansa, Francis Kasonde, Nathan Sinkala, Rainford Kalaba; Emmanuel Mayuka, Chris Katongo ©

MSC Prediction: Ivory Coast 3, Zambia 1

Ausi Tholoana, The Football Guru

In Maseru, Lesotho