Afcon Semi-final Time

It’s semi-final time at the 2012 Orange Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) and two ties where there is a clear favourite and an underdog.

The first semi pits Ghana’s Black Stars against Zambia’s Chipolopolo. It may be a surprise to some that Zambia have got this far in this tournament, but it really shouldn’t be. Zambia were quarterfinalists at the last Afcon – Angola 2010 – where they were unlucky to be knocked out by Nigeria.

In Angola Chipolopolo were one of the most enterprising teams and they have continued that approach into this Afcon. Zambia have a team full of spirit and their attitude has been one of their key signatures.

Zambia have some fundamental strengths too. Although prone to some gaffs, in Kennedy Mweene they have one of the most consistent goalkeepers at the tournament. Mweene is reliable under the high ball, is a good shot stopper and a top communicator from the back.

His confidence filters through to the rest of the team, right up to the front-man – inspirational leader Christopher Katongo, who always leads by example. Zambia’s pace has been much talked about at these championships so far. In this suit they have great weapons, especially in tricky winger Rainford Kalaba. That could be a key area for Zambia to exploit as Ghana fullback areas have generally been the Black Stars’ weakness.

Zambia's danger winger Rainford Kalaba

That said, Zambia will need much more than pace to beat the Black Stars, as Ghana are also a very gifted side physically. It’s hard to beat them for pace or power. But as Tunisia showed in the quarterfinals, if you can keep the ball well against Ghana then you are in with a chance.

This is a general Achilles Heel in West African teams I have seen; and perhaps it might explain why they don’t really do so well at World Cup. They can’t possess the ball well. Ghana are a bit better in this regard, but still, despite their prowess, Badu and Annan aren’t the most creative in possession, and generally their front-five isn’t built for ball retention, rather breaking up play or forcing goalmouth action.

So that’s where Zambia have to focus, which might mean a slight change to their tactical approach which has normally been a straight gung-ho approach. Zambia will have to be more patient, build from the back, keep the ball and try lull Ghana into errors. In any case, your opponents can’t score without the ball.

Ghana will be favourites for two reasons in my book, firstly their top European-based quality and their determination. Ghana is really a special team when it comes to African football, particularly West African football. Ghana had one incident with Sulley Muntari ahead of the 2010 Afcon, other than that this is really a team that is fully behind the cause and the coach, whoever it may be. It has cultivated a wonderful period of success staring with the 2006 World Cup, the last two Nations Cups and of course the magical 2010 World Cup.

The Black Stars of Ghana

I’m a big believer in the power of spirit in a team and Tunisia showed that against Ghana, pushing the Black Stars to the brink despite being heavy underdogs. But to their credit Ghana too dug in and fought for their lives. They hung in there and their chance came.

Quality wise, Ghana have a who’s who of African talent. Asamoah Gyan hasn’t quite hit his straps at this Afcon, but he has still worked extremely hard for the team and is a nuisance – with quality. Andre Ayew is one of the best talents in world football, no doubt. His composure belies his years and his influence on the team grows with each passing game.

As a shield in front of the back four, Badu and Annan are comparable to any in world football and I like Kwadwo Asamoah when he’s in there in the hole, he offers a link for the team.

The weakness I talked about before is in the fullback areas where, despite the fact this is the semi-final stage, you get the feeling Ghana still aren’t sure of which two players should man the right and left-back positions.

MSC Prediction: Zambia have been fantastic at these championships, but they will struggle to match the physical prowess of a focused Ghana side over 90 minutes. If Ghana however are off their game, Zambia will capitalise. The Black Stars have had a day less to rest after playing in a very tough quarterfinal game against Tunisia, while Zambia had a simple enough game in the end against Sudan and haven’t had to travel.

That all said, Ghana should have a bit much for Chipolopolo. 2-1 Ghana.

Ivory Coast are finally looking like they will fulfil their talent. Maybe it’s because many of the current players know that not only is this their best chance to win an Afcon title, but maybe their last. With no Egypt in the tournament, the Elephants’ biggest adversary in recent Nations Cups is gone.

Didier Drogba is certainly playing like a man who is eyeing a date with destiny, and the way he celebrated his first goal against Equatorial Guinea showed how much this Afcon means not only to him, but the team as well. It’s rare to see Drogba celebrate like that.

Didier Zokora also had a fine game while Yaya Toure scored one of the best goals of the tournament.

The biggest thing about Ivory Coast is the talent they have in reserve. Wilfried Bony is a star, a potential match winner – he’s on the bench. Salomon Kalou could start this one on the bench again, where he’ll be joined by Kader Keita and Seydou Doumbia amongst others.

Seydou Keita, the key man for Mali

The Elephants defence has also looked most impressive and Ivory Coast haven’t conceded a single goal this Afcon.

Don’t know if it’s just me, but since Kolo Toure returned from that drugs ban he’s looked amazing for club and country.

It’s hard to see how Mali will cope with all this. Yes, I gave them no chance against Gabon and they won - but this time I just can’t see it.

MSC Prediction: Ivory Coast to win.

Ausi Tholoana, The Football Guru

In Leribe, Lesotho