Quote of the week

“To be a great champion you must believe you are the best. If you're not, pretend you are.” – Muhammad Ali

Monday, November 25, 2013

Bantu fail to consolidate, Lioli fail to capitalise

Lioli and Bantu drop points, Nyenye continue to fight hard, and Joy get their first win. This weekend’s Vodacom Premier League talking points…

Catch me if you can...
Everyone's still chasing Lioli
Both Bantu and Lioli will be kicking themselves this Monday morning. Hard.

Bantu failed to build on their win over Lioli last weekend, only managing a 1-1 draw with Nyenye Rovers and Lioli, in turn, failed to capitalise on A Matšo Matebele’s slip-up drawing 1-1 with LDF after conceding a late equaliser.

For Lioli it is becoming a worrying trend – conceding after taking the lead. The champions have the best offence in the Vodacom Premier League scoring 28 goals in 12 matches, but their defence is beginning to be called into question.

It certainly cost them against Bantu two weekends ago, a match in which Tse Nala also went ahead, and it let them down again this weekend. Lioli drew 1-1 with Linare as well.

This set of results also represents a sort of mixed bag for Tse Nala. Lioli have come through a difficult stretch – Matlama, LMPS, LCS, Bantu and LDF – pretty much unscathed, but they are struggling to dominate their rivals at the top.

Bantu will be disappointed too, maybe more than Lioli After drawing their first two games, Bantu went on an unbeaten run of eight wins and a draw, plus an Independence Cup title. However, a point against Nyenye Rovers leaves A Matšo Matebele still behind Lioli which ultimately is all that matters – even if they beat Lioli in head-to-head clashes.

Nyenye Rovers are fighting
In the past three weeks Nyenye Rovers have beaten LDF, drawn with Linare and now held title-chasing Bantu to a draw. Rovers are really fighting hard. In fact, Rovers are unbeaten in six games, a run that stretches back to September 29. Expected to be right in the thick of the relegation fight, Rovers are producing miracles. Though by no means out of danger yet, Rovers are seven points above the drop zone, with a game in hand.

Third-place up for grabs
With the top two pretty much entrenched, the battle Lesotho’s other big boys is now for third place. So far no team has shown the consistency to make the spot their own. Linare are its current occupants and it would be their best finish in almost a decade. But, Tse Tala are notoriously inconsistent.

Matlama for third?
Matlama are firmly in the race. Tse Putsoa now have two games in hand on the sides around them after their game against Likhopo was rescheduled because of call-ups to the Lesotho Under-20 side. But, there really is no clear favourite for third and even LCS, in ninth, may well believe they can still crack the top three after notching their first win since September 21 yesterday.

Joy get their first win
There was joy for Joy yesterday as they finally got their first win of the season. Joy beat fellow relegation favourites Melele to get the monkey off their backs, and regards relegation, get to within five points of safety at least.

Weekend Results
Saturday, 23 November
Nyenye Rovers 1-1 Bantu
Linare 1-1 Mphatlalatsane
Lioli 1-1 LDF
Likhopo v Matlama (Postponed)
Sunday, 24 November
Joy 2-1 Melele
Mpharane Celtic 0-1 LCS
Qoaling Highlanders 2-1 LMPS

Vodacom Premier League


P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Lioli
12
9
2
1
28
9
+19
29
2
Bantu
12
8
4
0
21
3
+18
28
3
Linare
12
6
4
2
17
10
+7
22
4
Matlama
10
6
2
2
12
7
+5
20
5
LDF
12
5
5
2
12
8
+4
20
6
Likhopo
11
5
3
3
14
9
+5
18
7
Qoaling Highlanders
11
4
3
4
10
11
-1
15
8
Mphatlalatsane
12
3
4
5
14
15
-1
13
9
LCS
10
3
3
4
7
6
+1
12
10
Nyenye Rovers
11
2
6
3
10
10
+0
12
11
LMPS
12
3
2
7
10
15
-5
11
12
Mpharane Celtic
12
2
3
7
14
28
-14
9
13
Melele
12
1
2
9
8
23
-15
5
14
Joy
11
1
1
9
5
28
-23
4

Saturday, November 23, 2013

The curious case of Rayo Vallecano

Party Time!
Rayo Vallecano, La Liga's Crazy Gang
21 September, 2013, is a date that may go down in history; well, La Liga history anyway.

What was so special about it?

Well, it was the day Barcelona had less possession in a match than their opponents – the first time in over five years, a run of over 300 competitive games, this had happened.

The achievers of this noteworthy feat were Rayo Vallecano, a small club from the Vallecas barrio in Madrid with a season’s budget of €7 million, a fraction of Barça’s €509 million 2013/14 war chest.

On that night, however, Barcelona – the world’s masters of the pass – had to settle for just 46 percent of the ball.

It was typical of Rayo’s swashbuckling nature. Few teams play a more bullish game and fewer still keep the ball better than Rayo; this season they are behind only Barcelona in La Liga’s possession stakes.

The only problem for Rayo?

They lost to Barça. 4-0.

And, this has been the worrying story of Rayo Vallecano’s Primera campaign so far.

After a fairytale 2012/13 campaign in which they finished eighth, Rayo are in the midst of the worst run of form of any team in Europe over the last six league games, worse than Neftochimic 1962, Braunschweig, Syrianska and worse than FC Oss.

La Liga Top 8 – 2012/13


P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Barcelona (C)
38
32
4
2
115
40
+75
100
2
Real Madrid
38
26
7
5
103
42
+61
85
3
Atletico Madrid
38
23
7
8
65
31
+34
76
4
Real Sociedad
38
18
12
8
70
49
+21
66
5
Valencia
38
19
8
11
67
54
+13
65
6
Malaga
38
16
9
13
53
50
+3
57
7
Betis
38
16
8
14
57
56
+1
56
8
Rayo Vallecano
38
16
5
17
50
66
−16
53

In those six games Rayo has conceded 20 goals and scored just two. Their discipline has deserted them also; three red cards and 20 yellow cards have been collected, and, ultimately, after a 3-0 win over newly-promoted Elche on the opening weekend of the season, Rayo has slumped to the foot of the Primera table.

With La Liga heading for a two-week international break after this weekend’s games, Rayo has a myriad of problems to resolve, quickly. If not, it could be curtains for La Liga’s fairytale team.

Vallekas Pride...
Rayo Vallecano's loud and proud supporters
Where is the defence?

Rayo Vallecano has now conceded more goals than any other side in Europe’s top five leagues this season, and that alone says it all.

The disorganisation in their defence has been obvious over the past month and four times already this season Rayo have conceded at least four goals in a match – against Atletico Madrid (5-0), Malaga (5-0), Barcelona (4-0) and most recently Sevilla (4-1).

Of the 21 goals they have conceded this season, 20 have been scored from inside the area, again illustrating how easy it has been to get to their goals.

Much of this comes down to their philosophy.

Rayo are a daring and cavalier side. Their ringmaster Paco Jémez sets his team out for offence, pushing them high up the pitch and often encouraging his full-backs to almost become wingers. The football is treasured at Rayo and they always look to pass out from the back.

Last season, in reference to Celtic’s defensive display in a narrow 2-1 Uefa Champions League loss to Barcelona at the Camp Nou, Jémez said: “I could play like Celtic did, but I would drop my head in shame when I looked in the eyes of our fans.”

Rayo attacked Barcelona when the sides met and lost 5-0.

Jémez’s retort: “If you’re going to lose by two, what difference does it make if you lose by four?”

It is a strategy that has seen Rayo produce some of the most audacious football in La Liga since their promotion in 2011. Last season, they enjoyed the third highest average possession in Europe’s major leagues, bettered only by Barcelona and Bayern Munich.

However, this philosophy, coupled with Rayo’s incessant bleeding of players due to their financial problems (16 in all have left over the past two seasons) has its drawbacks. In defence, especially, problems are always amplified. Jose Manuel Cassado, Jordi Amat and Jordi Figueras are all departed and the result is a defensive core substantially different from last season and a coach struggling to find a first-choice combination.

Over the last six games, six different defensive combinations have been used with no same centre-back pairing starting for consecutive games.

Defensive combinations for Rayo in the past six games
Opponent
Right-back
Centre-back
Centre-back
Left-back
Atletico (0-5)
Tito
Galvez
Galeano
Nacho
Levante (1-2)
Tito
Galvez
Arbilla
Nacho
Malaga (0-5)
Tito
Galvez
Galeano
Nacho
Barca (0-4)
Tito
Galvez
Arbilla
Mojica
Sevilla (1-4)
Arbilla
Galvez
Niguez
Mojica
Valencia (0-1)
Arbilla
Castro
Niguez
Mojica

Paco Jemez, Rayo's eccentric ringmaster
Clearly, then, there will be problems in cohesion and unsurprisingly Rayo has made several costly errors this season. The latest came last Sunday against Valencia, the happy recipient Jonas pouncing on Saúl Niguez’s mistake to seal a 1-0 win for Valencia.

 Rayo Vallecano defensive errors
Errors leading to goals
2
Total errors
3

Shot zones - Against
Areas
Percentage
Rank in La Liga
6 yards box
11%
3rd
18 yards box
59%
2nd
Outside of the box
30%
19th

The defence has not been helped by the midfield either. Built mostly for possession, it has often offered little without the ball. Its central mainstay, Roberto Trashorras, started his career as a central striker, for example.

Rayo has also been unlucky at times.

Trashorras had a penalty saved with the score still at 1-0 against Barça. Against Levante they had Lassana Bangoura sent off, but in a show of their manic philosophy, Rayo absolutely peppered Levante’s goal, registering 23 shots in total, only for Andreas Ivanschitz to break their hearts with a last second winner.

Their defending, nevertheless, is a serious weak link and a major reason for their troubles so far.

The loss of Piti and the toothless offence

The loss of Piti to Granada has clearly hurt the Vallecanos too.

Piti was not only the team’s captain last season but its offensive leader, scoring 18 goals – the sixth highest total in the league.

Rayo has also lost young Brazilian striker Leo Baptistao, a nippy, clever forward with an eye for goal, to Atletico. The two were their top attacking avenues. Without them Rayo has lost cutting edge upfront and in Piti, in particular, they have lost a classy presence in the final third. So far new striker Joaquin Larrivey has struggled and, as a team, Rayo have largely been toothless.

So while they dominate possession – Rayo have completed 2839 passes already this season – much is often recycled harmlessly. And because they insist on a short passing game, when the ball is lost Rayo are quickly opened up because of their lack of defensive structure.

Kings of Possession? Barcelona?
No! Rayo Vallecano!
Whereas last season Rayo had some end-product to their passing, often masking their defensive frailties (Rayo conceded 66 goals last season), this season a lack of firepower has put other shortcomings under the microscope.

Perhaps their last Primera game against Valencia encapsulated Rayo this season – costly mistakes in defence, plenty of possession and poor finishing.

Rayo Vallecano passing stats

Possession
Successful passes
Pass accuracy
Average length of pass (Metres)
Barcelona
61%
3955
89%
16
Rayo
57%
2839
83%
19
R. Madrid
56%
3071
86%
18
Celta Vigo
52%
2264
79%
20
Osasuna
52%
2234
77%
20
Via Squawka

Pass Types 
Type of pass
Number of passes per game
Percentage of total passes
Short pass
436
81%
Long ball
77
14%
Cross
22
4%
Through ball
2
1%
Via Squawka

Stats: Valencia 1-0 Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Metric
Rayo
38.7%
Possession
61.3%
193
Passes Completed
356
3
Corners
5
80
Attacking 3rd Passes
126
5
Shots
13
Via StatsZone

Sunday crunch-time vs. Real Sociedad

Still, for Rayo to be amongst La Liga’s big boys is a minor miracle.

The Vallecas club has the lowest budget in La Liga and a stadium that only holds 14,708. Furthermore, Rayo are currently in administration and because of their heavy debts were barred from taking their place in Europe this season.

In order to survive the club has to continuously sell its best players. Michu and Diego Costa are among those who have been sold in recent years and this revolving door means Jémez has to work with a new squad every season.

Diego Costa and Michu, just two of the gems
Rayo Vallecano has lost
Considering this, Jémez has worked wonders especially as he has to continually implement a rather wild philosophy on a different group of players every season.

Rayo have to turn the corner quickly, though, and Sunday offers the Vallecanos an opportunity to do when they host a Real Sociedad side that has also started slowly after a fine 2012/13 campaign. Sociedad, one of Spain’s four representatives in the Uefa Champions League, lie in 13th place with one win from seven matches, and no win in their last six games.

It is a crucial game for Rayo as they seek, more than anything, the psychological boost of moving off the bottom of the table before the international break.

Yes, Rayo did start slowly last season recovering from 15th place after nine matches to finish eighth.

However, with a defence constantly leaking and an offence constantly missing, Rayo have to turn the corner sooner rather than later. Possession has to turn into goals.

Originally written on 3 October, 2013 for BSports StatsInsights