Arsenal or Barcelona - Who will win?

Arsenal does battle with Barcelona in a few hours time in what is sure to be a fascinating game. Can the Gunners finally prove their mettle on the biggest stage?

Arsenal’s 2-1 lead from the first leg of this Uefa Champions League last 16 tie at least gives them something to hold on to. But they will have plenty of work to do tonight at the daunting home of the Spanish champions.

Despite their first leg win, a closer look at the stats from three weeks ago shows the fundamental hurdle Arsenal will have to overcome at the Nou Camp.

In all Barcelona totalled 629 passes at the Emirates, more than double Arsenal’s tally, while Xavi on his own completed 109 passes with a success rate of 88%.

There were several periods in the first half in London where Barcelona completely monopolised possession of the ball, forcing play into Arsenal’s half of the pitch. With possession attained it allowed for the full barrage of Barca’s weaponry with Lionel Messi, David Villa, Pedro and Dani Alves relentlessly breaking forward and getting beyond Arsenal’s defensive structure.

Barcelona indeed could have scored more but just as last year when they let slip a 2-0 lead in the teams’ quarterfinal first leg Barca gradually gave away their momentum, slowing the pace of their game and their passes becoming more lateral.

Oh yes, and of course Victor Valdes produced one of his trademark moments.

The Molapo Sports Centre takes a look at two of tonight’s key areas:

Barcelona’s fullback areas

Barcelona have few weakness, however one is the relative porosity of their fullback areas. Arsenal found this out to their advantage in the first leg. And with Eric Abidal due to play in central defence due to the suspension of Gerard Pique and absence of Carles Puyol, this weakness could be exacerbated with the likely deployment of the attack minded but less athletic Maxwell at leftback.

Perhaps this is why the absence of Theo Walcott is the biggest loss for Arsenal. Last season Arsenal’s early goal in their 4-1 loss at the Nou Camp came from an early raid down the right flank by led Walcott. And because of their high-pressing short possession game Barcelona are always susceptible to rapid raids down the sides of the field.

It remains to be seen whether Samir Nasri and Andrey Arshavin, both of whom prefer skilful methodical build-ups, will be able to exploit the sometimes liberal attacking tendencies of Dani Alves and Maxwell.

Arsenal’s defence

Apart from the outright style play they should adopt tonight - i.e. whether to attack or defend - Arsenal’s greatest dilemma is how high they should play their back four. It is an open argument with some advocating for a high line in order to compress the midfield while there is also a school of thought that sitting deep would leave less space for those penetrating balls in behind by Xavi and Andres Iniesta.

But most importantly this issue will be negated by the performance of Arsenal midfield and how well they can mark space.

The key player tonight therefore could be Abou Diaby who is set to come in for the injured Alex Song. Barcelona’s clever one-two football is generated through the heart of midfield and more often than not they attack with brutal and skillful pace through the middle of the park.

Who will win?

It’s difficult to see Arsenal progressing simply for the reason that to beat Barcelona you need your full strength team available. Without Walcott Arsenal have lost a considerable weapon on the counterattack. And despite Robin van Persie travelling with the squad it is highly unlikely that if he plays he will be able to perform at his optimum, especially against arguably the toughest one-on-one defender in Abidal.

If Nicklas Bendtnar gets the nod upfront he will have to considerably improve his general link-up play, movement and work-rate.

Arsenal has also shown a tendency for imploding recent seasons. Just last season the Gunners were thumped 4-1 at the Nou Camp, and of course there is no need to mention that Carling Cup final. These memories will give confidence to a Barcelona side that has scored 93 goals in La Liga and Champions League football this season.

But that said, this is the beauty of sport – just as one punch can change the complexion of a boxing match, one goal could decide whether Arsenal or Barcelona who goes through to the Champions League quarter-finals.